Preliminary Clinical Prediction Rule for Identifying Patients With Ankylosing Spondylitis Who Are Likely to Respond to an Exercise Program: A Pilot Study.

Alonso-Blanco C, Fernández-de-Las-Peñas C, Cleland JA

The aim of this study was to develop a preliminary clinical prediction rule to identify the potential predictors for identifying patients presenting with ankylosing spondylitis who are likely to respond to a specific exercise program. Data from 35 patients were included of which 16 (46%) experienced a successful outcome. A clinical prediction rule with three variables (physical role >37, bodily pain >27, and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index >31) was identified. The most accurate predictor of success was if the patient exhibited two of the three variables, and the positive likelihood ratio was 11.2 and the posttest probability of success increased to 91%. The accuracy of prediction declined if either 1/3 or 3/3 variables were present.

The present preliminary clinical prediction rule provides the potential to identify patients with ankylosing spondylitis who are likely to experience short-term follow-up success with a specific exercise program. Future studies are necessary to validate the clinical prediction rule.

Am J Phys Med Rehabilitation, online article, Mar 25 2009

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